Ukraine, which threshed about 46% of the area occupied by cereals and legumes, harvested more than 32.2 million tons of grain from the new harvest, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy said on Friday.
According to the ministry, this volume includes 23.4 million tons of wheat harvested from 72% of the area sown by it, and 8.05 million tons of barley from 79% of the area.
The ministry predicts that the overall harvest in 2021 will reach a record 75.8 million tons, up from 65 million in 2020.
The 2021 harvest is forecast to include 37.1 million tonnes of corn, 28.5 million tonnes of wheat and 8.3 million tonnes of barley, up from 30.3 million tonnes of corn, 24.9 million tonnes of wheat and 7.8 million tonnes. barley last year.
One of the priority directions of VPG AGRO PLUS development is attraction of the most modern technologies. The company plans to launch a new modern elevator, which will cover the Ternopil region and will allow it to fulfill the planned volume of more than 30,000 tons.
In August 2021, new and modern grain drying equipment for the elevator arrives from Italy. The company plans to launch the elevator operation in October – November 2021.
Corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange continue speculative gains, which have been observed since the beginning of the week, despite fundamental factors: a bearish USDA forecast, lower export volumes and a decrease in ethanol processing. The main reason for the increase is insufficient rainfall in the northwest regions of the US corn belt, and hot weather forecasts for next week.
Over the past 5 days, there has been quite intense rainfall throughout the US corn belt, but in some states (Minnesota, Northern Iowa and Wisconsin), there is not enough rainfall to improve crop conditions.
Yesterday, July futures for corn rose 0.8% to $ 268.9 / t, while December futures jumped 3.3% to $ 219.7 / t, showing an overall increase of 7.3% over three days, but so far the 13% drop (from early July to 9th) was not compensated for due to increased planting areas and the forecast for the US crop.
EIA report data showed that US ethanol production for the week fell 2.5% to 1,040,000. Barrels per day, which equates to about 2.68 million tonnes of corn consumed per week.
Corn quotes were supported by the Rabobank forecast that corn exports from Brazil in 2020 / 21MY will fall to 21 million tons (12 million tons below their previous forecast) due to falling production and rising domestic prices well below the USDA July forecast of 28 million tons of corn.
Quotes for the Black Sea corn in Chicago also followed the American corn and November corn futures rose 7.3% to $ 248 / t in three days, although at the end of June they traded at $ 260 / t, and reached 290 in early May. $ / t.
On Wednesday, the Vietnamese government said it plans to remove the 3% duty on wheat imports and reduce the import duty on corn from 5% to 3% to support domestic feed producers, which will also support corn prices.
Riots and robberies in South Africa due to the imprisonment of former President Jacob Zuma forced the road, rail and port logistics to declare force majeure in the country, which could reduce the export supply of corn, the crop of which could reach about 17 million tons against 14.5 million tons last season …
Forward prices for Ukrainian corn after falling to levels of 210-215 $ / t this week returned to the levels of 220-230 $ / t with delivery in October-December, but farmers are in no hurry to conclude contracts for fear of a repeat of the heat in July- August.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its June report has improved the forecast for the export of Ukrainian wheat in the 2021/2022 marketing year (MY, July – June) by 0500000 tons compared to the May forecast – up to 20500000 tons.
It also raised the forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine in 2021 by 0500000 tons – up to 29 million tons. The reason for the revision of the forecast is a long period of favorable weather conditions.
At the same time, the USDA kept its forecast for corn exports from Ukraine at 30,500,000 tons, and the harvest at 37,500,000 tons.
Діаграма: Ukrainian Agribusiness Club
There are no reasons for Ukraine to restrict the export of agricultural crops this year, said the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Roman Leshchenko on March 19.
Global wheat production this year is expected to hit a record 794.4 million tonnes, up 5.5 million tonnes from the USDA’s previous estimate. The increase in production will occur mainly due to the EU countries, Russia and Ukraine.
The USDA also predicts an increase in world wheat consumption by 2,400,000 tons to a record 791,100,000 tons. The increase in consumption will be due to an increase in the use of wheat as animal feed.
Context. In March, the Ministry of Economy predicted the grain harvest this year at 75 million tons.
From the beginning of 2020/2021 MY and as of June 11, Ukraine exported 42,940,000 tons of grain and leguminous crops, which is 22.4% less than on the same date of the previous MY. 16,110,000 tons of wheat and 21,970,000 tons of corn were exported.
Export prices for sunflower oil from Ukraine continued to rise sharply and reached $ 1,680 – $ 1,700 amid recovery in oil prices and growing concerns about the soybean crop in South America.
Bid prices for the supply of oil in the April-June period exceed $ 1,700 per tonne on FOB basis and $ 1,680 per tonne on CPT basis, Refinitiv Agriculture reports.
In the current 2020/21 season (which began in September 2020), sunflower oil prices are rising amazingly. Last week, export quotations for crude sunflower oil from Ukraine increased by almost $ 100 per ton FOB, since the beginning of 2021 the growth has already increased by $ 500 per ton. And since the beginning of the 2020/21 season, a ton of sunflower oil has grown by more than $ 800.
The sharp rise in oil prices and the limited supply of raw materials on the domestic market forces Ukrainian exporters to take a cautious stance.
“The butter market is very unpredictable,” one Ukrainian trader commented on the situation.
Recall that at the end of the 2019/20 marketing year (September 2019 – August 2020), Ukraine not only retained the title of the main exporter of sunflower oil in the world, but also set a world record in terms of export volume – 6,680,000 tons.
At the end of 2019, Ukraine exported sunflower oil in the amount of $ 4.3 billion (in 2018 it was 4% more) and meal by $ 975 million (in the year before last, this figure was 11% less).
During the 2019/20 marketing season, rapeseed producers in Ukraine increased exports by 18% to a record level of 2,890,000 tons. It took Ukraine 11 seasons to restore the record for the export of rapeseed, said the analytical company APK-Inform on Wednesday. According to analysts’ estimates, this is 10% more than the previous maximum reached in 2008/09 MY. Then 2,640,000 tons were exported.
“The main volumes of rapeseed were purchased by the EU countries – 95% of the total export volume against 88.5% last season, because they faced an acute shortage of oilseeds due to poor harvests,” said analyst Yulia Ivanitskaya
In physical terms, supplies of Ukrainian rapeseed to the EU, if compared with the previous season, increased by 26% and amounted to 2,740,000 tons. Among the importing countries, one can single out Germany – + 26% to last year’s purchases, Belgium – + 12%, the Netherlands – increased purchases by 2.6 times, France – + 19%, Poland – + 36%. The most significant reduction in purchases was observed in Portugal – almost five times.
Among the non-European states, Turkey became the leader, which in October 2019 imported a consignment that has no analogues in terms of volume – 60 thousand tons of Ukrainian rapeseed, and was in 6th place in the ranking.
Weather conditions are now very favorable for the development of early grain crops; there are practically no areas on the territory of Ukraine that are threatened by drought. This was reported by the head of the agrometeorological department of the Hydrometeorological Center Tatiana Adamenko to the Interfax-Ukraine agency.
“If we do not take into account local problems like hail or flooding, then the situation is very good, the earth has a wonderful resource of moisture. There are practically no areas threatened by drought, in the last decade it is unusual for Ukraine, ”she said.
The meteorologist clarified that it is too early to assess the impact of weather conditions on grain yields, since their growing season has just begun.
According to Adamenko, a period of intense rains is coming to an end in Ukraine, and on June 17-19, a period of high temperatures will begin in the daytime and at night.
In the southern regions, the ripening of winter barley began, for which the available amount of moisture in the soil may be excessive, but it is too early to talk about a significant influence of this factor on its yield. At the same time, for the development of key export crops throughout Ukraine – corn and sunflower – there is still enough moisture and heat.
Adamenko called the low air temperature the main limiting factor in the development of fruit and vegetable crops. She noted the lack of data on their condition, since these crops are grown mainly in small private farms.
After the end of the period of intense rains this week, an optimal development regime will be established for fruit and vegetable crops.
In March, the Ministry of Economy predicted the grain harvest this year at 75 million tons.
From the beginning of 2020/2021 MY and as of June 11, Ukraine exported 42,940,000 tons of grain and leguminous crops, which is 22.4% less than on the same date of the previous MY. 16,110,000 tons of wheat and 21,970,000 tons of corn were exported.
